Matteo Berrettini – Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix Auger-Aliassime has a tendency to overthink things and that could be a problem in this match. In his last match, Alexander Zverev was even more fragile than he is in this area (and his 20 double faults and 34% on his seconds won’t say otherwise). This allowed the Canadian to get out of a few tight spots. In addition, Auger-Aliassime will be playing in a Grand Slam quarter-final for the first time in his career and this could put additional pressure on him.
Matteo Berrettini is much more mentally sound and will be playing his third Grand Slam quarterfinal (after the 2019 US Open and Roland Garros 2021). He is also more reliable on his service games. Felix Auger-Aliassime could therefore pay dearly for his shortcomings on his commitments as he will not be able to come back as easily as he did in his last match.
In the heart of the game, Felix Auger-Aliassime has what it takes to compete. He can hit the ball hard and offer a tennis style that is perhaps a little more varied than the Italian. On the other hand, the Italian has a crazy amount of power and I doubt that the Canadian will have enough time to drop his shots if his opponent attacks first.
On the other hand, let’s point out that Felix Auger-Aliassime doesn’t have much success against Top 10 players. He has a 79% loss rate against elite players. However, he has won his last two matches against them (against Schwartzman in Rome and Federer in La Halle).
So I’m pretty excited about a win for Matteo Berrettini. It’s time for the Italian to take the next step and reach his first Grand Slam semi-final.
Prediction: Matteo Berrettini