Rotterdam (semi-final): Andrey Rublev – Stefanos Tsitsipas

Latest confrontations

These two Top 10 players have already met 6 times in official matches. There are 3-3 in this head-to-head.

It is worth noting that Stefanos Tsitsipas leads in the indoor confrontations (2-1), but that we have systematically attended matches that were close. Heads or tails?

Tournament history

Andrey Rublev is playing this tournament in Rotterdam for the third time in his career. He had never managed to get past the quarter-finals until this year.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is competing in the ATP 500 for the fourth time in his career. It is also the first time he has reached the semi-finals. Prior to that, he failed to advance past the second round.

In this edition

To get there, Andrey Rublev defeated Marcos Giron, Andy Murray and Jeremy Chardy. Only the Frenchman managed to steal a set from him (on tie-break).

For his part, Stefanos Tsitsipas won against Egor Gerasimov, Hubert Hurkacz and Karen Khachanov. The Greek lost a set in his last two matches.

Analysis

I’m expecting a clinging match, and why not a disjointed one, between these two players who are not used to letting go so easily.

I don’t really see an obvious winner in this match. So I’m going to hold on to a few small elements that I find in favour of Andrey Rublev.

First of all, this match promises to be very physical and Stefanos Tsitsipas spent a lot more time on the court. Indeed, he is also entered in doubles with his little brother. He’s been playing for almost 9 hours since Tuesday, including almost 4 hours on Friday. Andrey Rublev played a long match against Jeremy Chardy (2:40), but still spent 3 hours less on the court. This could be important in the event that these two men go into a third set. And there have often been some in their previous encounters.

On service, I found Andrey Rublev slightly stronger. The Russian indeed serves more firsts, and they are generally more efficient. He also had more aces than his opponent (23, compared to 14 for the Greek). Also, since the beginning of the week, these two men haven’t let go of many serves. Rublev has lost 31% of the break balls he had to save, compared to 38% for Tsitsipas.

A large part of this match will of course be played when the rally begins. In this area, our two good men have weapons on which to lean to come and shake the other. Stefanos Tsitsipas has this ability to take the ball early and drop explosive shots from both sides (and his one-handed long line backhand is a delight). Andrey Rublev, meanwhile, uses his power to stifle his opponents and achieve incredible winners. But it’s all still pretty undecided as they’ve also made a lot of faults since the beginning of the week. It’s make or break.

I still think that Andrey Rublev’s physical demands (if he isn’t toasted himself) could do a lot of harm to Stefanos Tsitsipas who has already given well.

Finally, an interesting statistic: Andrey Rublev has already played 4 semi-finals in an ATP indoor tournament, and he has never lost at this level of competition (he lifted the trophy 3 times by the way). As for Stefanos Tsitsipas, he has already participated in 7 indoor semi-finals in an ATP tournament, and he has already lost two of them. Finally, he has always managed to lift the trophy when he has played in an ATP indoor final (5 wins).

I am banking on Andrey Rublev’s physique and power to overcome Greek pride.

Prediction: Andrey Rublev wins

High risk

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