Rotterdam (1st round): David Goffin – Jan-Lennard Struff

Latest confrontations

These two players have already met 6 times between 2014 and 2020. David Goffin won the first 4 matches, while Jan-Lennard Struff won the last two. Note that the Belgian won the only two matches played indoors.

Tournament history

David Goffin will play in Rotterdam for the 8th time in his career. He has been eliminated 4 times in the first round, and his best performance is a final in 2017. Last season he was beaten in the second round by Jannik Sinner.

Jan-Lennard Struff will participate in the ATP 500 for the third time. He has never yet managed to win in the first round.

Analysis

After the level of play proposed by David Goffin in Montpellier, especially in the final, it is hard for me not to see him win this new match.

Jan-Lennard Struff hasn’t really been in shape since the beginning of the season. He seems to be physically present, but the head is not there. This makes him less reliable on the serve (especially on his too often catastrophic seconds) and very feverish in the rallies.

As I said earlier, David Goffin showed some very nice things in Montpellier. In particular, I was pleasantly surprised by the progress made in the service where he now manages to win many free points. This is an element that will be important against a “big” server like Jan-Lennard Struff.

David Goffin is expected to surprise his opponent of the day more than once on the restart. Indeed, he is able to return the ball very well, even against the excellent servers of the circuit, and this should surprise Jan-Lennard Struff more than once.

In the game, the Belgian obviously has everything he needs to defeat the German. He is able to hit the ball early. Without forgetting that he has regained his aggressiveness in forehand and backhand, and that makes more than one pair of underpants wet.

Really, I don’t see how David Goffin could fall to Jan-Lennard Struff if he plays the same tennis as he did in his last match against Roberto Bautista Agut. Especially since he’s going to come out on the court with a lot of confidence.

Yes, but there is a real point of attention regarding his physical and mental state. Indeed, his last two matches in Montpellier lasted more than two hours, and he ran a lot in Sunday’s final. The Belgian will have little time to make the trip to Rotterdam, recover and get familiar with these new conditions. In addition, it is sometimes difficult for the winning players of a tournament to continue on to the next week.

So maybe we can imagine an opening for Jan-Lennard Struff, can’t we?

Finally, you should know that in his career, David Goffin followed up once a week with an ATP trophy. And you can imagine that he managed the double. That was in 2017: winner in Shenzhen, then winner in Tokyo the following week. A good sign for this ATP 500 in Rotterdam?

Prediction: David Goffin wins

Medium risk

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