Montpellier (final): Roberto Bautista – David Goffin

Latest confrontations

These two ATP alumni have already met 6 times in official matches between 2012 and 2018. There are 3-3 in the head-to-head. Note that David Goffin has won the last 3 matches (including two on clay).

Tournament history

This is Roberto Bautista’s second participation in this ATP 250 in Montpellier. He did not manage to pass the 1st round in 2012. Nice evolution.

David Goffin is playing this French tournament for the fourth time. Until now, he has never managed to do better than a semi-final (and 2018 and 2020).

In this edition

Roberto Bautista defeated Gregoire Barrere, Ugo Humbert and Peter Gojowczyk to book his ticket to the final. The Spanish did not lose any set, and conceded his serve only twice.

David Goffin defeated Benjamin Bonzi, Lorenzo Sonego and Egor Gerasimov. He lost two sets in the process.

Analysis

These two men deserve their place in the final because they played at a good level.

I think Roberto Bautista had a much easier time winning his three matches (and he had good opponents, especially Humbert). David Goffin had a tough time against Bonzi and Gerasimov. At one point I even thought he wasn’t going to make it over the Belarusian obstacle.

Roberto Bautista seems to me to still have some under the hood, unlike David Goffin. This week, I still found the Belgian rather feverish in the rallies, accusing him of it on several occasions when he decided to take the initiative (I’m thinking in particular of his long line backhands which were numerous to end in a direct fault). It even made him doubt against Egor Gerasimov. For a long time, he didn’t dare to do anything. Add to that the fact that he’s still very nervous on his second serves, and that should benefit Roberto Bautista.

Precisely, let’s talk about Spanish. I was pleasantly surprised by his reliable and aggressive tennis. We are far from the “bad” Bautista present in Australia. He is difficult to overrun, solid in forehand and backhand, and capable of picking up many points by himself. I have a good feeling that the trophy is for him this year. Indeed, if David Goffin doesn’t raise his level of play this Sunday, the current 13th in the world could well eat him up in the rallies.

Roberto Bautista had not played in an ATP final since 2018, while David Goffin had not had the opportunity to play in this final match since 2019. So we can imagine that this will do something for them and that they will be very motivated to lift this trophy.

However, David Goffin has not won a final since 2017. Let’s add to this that he is not really at the top in these big events. Indeed, during his career, the Belgian competed in 13 ATP finals and lost 9 of them (a mere 44% of victories in ATP finals). He has often crashed and burned in the final, and he could once again feel the pressure from this oppressive opponent.

Roberto Bautista will play his 16th final. He has won 9 of them (56% of victories).

If Roberto Bautista is playing at his level and David Goffin can’t raise his, then I don’t see how the Spanish can miss out on a 10th ATP trophy.

Prediction: Roberto Bautista wins

Medium risk

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