Madrid (2nd round): John Millman – Daniel Evans

Latest confrontations

These two players have already faced each other once. It was in 2016 on hard court, and Daniel Evans won 6-3 6-3.

Tournament history

This is John Millman’s second participation in this tournament in Madrid. In 2019, he fell to Fabio Fognini at this level of competition.

For his part, Daniel Evans had already played this Masters 1000 once before this edition. It was in 2017, and he had not managed to pass the first step.

In this edition

In the first round, John Millman defeated Hubert Hurkacz after a match played in 3 sets (including a tie-break) and 2h20 of play.

Daniel Evans won in the first round against Jérémy Chardy. The match was played in 3 sets (including 2 tie-breaks) and 2h50 of play.

Analysis

John Millman doesn’t look like much, but he can be a pain in the ass to play on this surface. He is an oppressive opponent who makes few faults, and that allows him to get into the heads of many opponents.

Daniel Evans also knows how to force his opponents to put in a little more to win points against him. So I expect a lot of long rallies between these two players.

I don’t believe in the one-sided match here, but I’m going to go with Daniel Evans because he seems to have a bit more weapons in his game.

John Millman plays like he knows how, but he changes his strategy very little. He’s a fighter from the baseline who hits hard while finding nice lengths. However, the Australian has a hard time adapting when that technique doesn’t work. He varies his ball speed very little and usually favors changes in direction.

The concern is that John Millman can quickly lose his footing when he can’t dominate the rallies from the baseline. Daniel Evans has the ability to vary the pace, but also to hit some nice winners (especially forehand). He’s an offensive player who doesn’t hesitate to get inside the court when he has the chance.

That last point could well be the deciding factor in this match. John Millman is not very comfortable going to the net, unlike Daniel Evans who can win a lot of points in this area. I can see the British man being able to outflank his opponent more than once and then make some forward runs.

Let’s also highlight the fact that Daniel Evans is able to win more free points on his serves. John Millman doesn’t have that quality, which could also benefit the current world number 26.

On the other hand, if you like those kinds of statistics, you should know that John Millman is not successful when he faces one-handed backhands. In fact, since 2013 in ATP tournaments, the Australian has won only 28% of his matches played against one-handed backhands. But above all, none of the 4 played on clay (against Cecchinato, Lajovic, Shapovalov and Thiem). A sign?

Prediction: Daniel Evans wins

Medium risk

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