Cincinnati (round 3) : Jan-Lennard Struff – David Goffin

Latest confrontations

These two players have already crossed paths 5 times between 2014 and 2019. David Goffin won the first 4 matches, while Jan-Lennard Struff finally won their last match in 2019.

Note that David Goffin won all the matches played on hard court.

Tournament history

This is the second year in a row that Jan-Lennard Struff has participated in this Cincinnati tournament. Last season, the German stopped at this level of competition. He had beaten Ivo Karlovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas, before crashing against Daniil Medvedev (who then lifted the trophy).

David Goffin, for his part, is playing this Masters 1000 for the 7th time. He has only reached the 1/8 final twice. That was in the last two years, stopping in the semi-final (2018) and final (2019).

In this edition

This week, Jan-Lennard Struff won against Alex De Minaur and Denis Shapovalov. Only the latter managed to steal a set from him.

David Goffin took advantage of his classification to jump the first lap. In his restart match, the Belgian defeated Borna Coric.

Analysis

David Goffin will have been lucky enough to have a day off. Well… a chance I’m not sure. The Belgian, who didn’t push much in his first match, hadn’t played since July 12th and his participation in the UTS. This recovery day could break his recovery dynamic and ask him for a little time to get back into this new match.

Jan-Lennard Struff was able to blow a day between his 1st and 2nd lap. In his last match he played about 2 hours and 20 minutes. But to tell the truth, I doubt that he has any physical difficulties to tackle this 1/8 final of the Masters 1000.

All this to say that the German could present himself in front of David Goffin with a better preparation, but above all with a lot of confidence. Because yes, the 34th in the world is boiling hot this week. A very offensive game to stifle his opponents, a solid mental to manage complicated situations, and an athletic physique to handle long rallies.

David Goffin is going to have to shake it up a bit more if he wants to hold on to his rank of 10th in the world and win. Indeed, in his first match, the Belgian rider has profited a lot from the errors of Borna Coric. This week, Jan-Lennard Struff shows a good regularity in the rallies, which shouldn’t allow Goffin to gain so many points.

Also, David Goffin’s small weakness in service could benefit the German. The Belgian has some good firsts, but he doesn’t have that many (only 54% against Coric for example). And his second balls leave a lot more possibilities in return. Precisely, the returns of Jan-Lennard Struff are aggressive and that could put a hardly manageable pressure on Goffin’s shoulders.

So, compared to what I have seen from these two players since the beginning of the tournament, Jan-Lennard Struff seems to me well placed to at least steal a set from the Belgian. And, let’s not be afraid to say it, to leave with the victory.

Jan-Lennard Struff, for a quarter-final against Novak Djokovic (who will play with a cervical collar)?

Prediction: Jan-Lennard Struff wins

High risk

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