Australian Open (semi-final): Daniil Medvedev – Stefanos Tsitsipas

Latest confrontations

This will be the seventh time these two Top 10 players will compete against each other.

Daniil Medvedev leads with 5 victories, but Stefanos Tsitsipas won the last match. Finally, they have not been played since 2019. They have come a long way since then.

Tournament history

Daniil Medvedev plays the Australian Open for the fifth time in his career. This is the first time he has reached the semi-finals. Until now he couldn’t get past the 1/8 finals.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is competing in this Grand Slam tournament for the fourth time. This is the second time he has reached these semifinals (after 2019, defeated by Rafael Nadal), and he has never managed to go further. In 2020, he was stopped in the third round.

In this edition

Daniil Medvedev defeated Vasek Pospisil, Roberto Carballes Baena, Filip Krajinovic, Mackenzie McDonald and Andrey Rublev. Only the Serb managed to steal 2 sets from him. For the other matches of the Russian, they were (almost) quiet.

Stefanos Tsitsipas, as for him, imposed himself against Gilles Simon, Thanasi Kokkinakis then Mikael Ymer. He then took advantage of Matteo Berrettini’s forfeit to present himself very fresh against Rafael Nadal. Only Kokkinakis and Nadal managed to take him both 2 sets.

Analysis

This poster is exceptional. We should indeed witness a magnificent tennis match, especially if these two men are playing at their best level.

I don’t really agree with the odds offered by the bookmakers. Daniil Medvedev does seem to be the favorite, but the gap between these two players is not as big for me. Stefanos Tsitsipas plays at a very good level. And it is indeed he who made Rafael Nadal thwart him (the Spanish confirmed that it was not his back that made him lose but the Greek).

So, to decide between these two players, I’m going to focus on small details that could allow Daniil Medvedev to make the difference.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will face one of the most physically demanding players (and it is not Andrey Rublev who will say otherwise). He has just crossed the huge “Rafael Nadal” wall after more than 4 hours of play, and he will face Daniil Medvedev in less than 48 hours. The Russian also suffered physically during his last match (he had cramps). But this is due to the fact that there were very long rallies. The match lasted only a little more than 2 hours, which makes me think that Daniil Medvedev will be in top form for this semi-final.

Next, service will obviously be an important part of this part. We’re dealing with two players who know how to earn free points (they both flirt with an average of 11 aces per match) and drop very solid first balls (they’re hovering around the 80% point mark on them). Where we might see a small difference is in the break balls conceded : Daniil Medvedev lost only 31.8% of the break balls he conceded (7/22), while Stefanos Tsitsipas lost 50% (4/8). It should also be noted that the Russian player conceded more break points, but it is above all his loss to Krajinovic that puts this statistic down (11 break points conceded against the Serb, 8 of which were saved). Without forgetting that the Russian is efficient when it comes to realizing the opportunities that are offered to him. I will therefore give a very slight advantage to Daniil Medvedev in this area of the game.

In the rally (which I hope will be magnificent), Stefanos Tsitsipas had better be as enterprising as from the 3rd set against Rafael Nadal. The Greek changed his way of playing by taking the ball earlier and hitting it a little flatter. This clearly made the difference in this second part of the match. This may not be as effective against Daniil Medvedev. First of all because Medvedev showed against Rublev that he can send the missiles back (and that is frankly an impression), but above all because he should not make as many faults as Nadal. It was also quite impressive to see Rafael Nadal lacking lucidity and making bad choices.

Daniil Medvedev is a monster who will be able to defend extremely well but also to attack. He has the particularity to know how to choke his opponents by sending all their balls back but also by making them run.

Daniil Medvedev therefore, in my opinion, has all the cards in hand to win against Stefanos Tsitsipas. However, we won’t have to lower the level of play or have empty runs, otherwise we will be punished more severely than against Filip Krajinovic. This remark also works for the Greek who, if he is not at his best, could endure the whole match and leave this Australian Open faster than expected.

Come on, we want a nice battle between these two players who, let’s not forget, don’t really like each other (you know the cold war between Russia and Greece?). The mental side could also play tricks on Tsitsipas, who can sometimes take things too much to heart.

Prediction: Daniil Medvedev wins

High risk

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