Australian Open (final): Novak Djokovic – Daniil Medvedev

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These two players have already met 7 times in official matches. Novak Djokovic leads in this face to face with 4 victories.

Note that Daniil Medvedev won the last match, played at the London Masters at the end of last year.

Tournament history

Novak Djokovic plays his 17th Australian Open. He reaches the final for the 9th time in his career, and he has always lifted the trophy (including last year).

As for Daniil Medvedev, he is participating in this Grand Slam tournament for the 5th time in his career. This is the first time he reached the final. This will be his second Grand Slam final, after the US Open lost to Rafael Nadal in 2019 (after a big battle in 5 sets).

In this edition

To reach the final, Novak Djokovic defeated Jeremy Chardy, Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, Milos Raonic, Alexander Zverev and Aslan Karatsev. The Serb lost 5 sets in the process and spent about 17h on the courts.

Daniil Medvedev won over Vasek Pospisil, Roberto Carballes Baena, Filip Krajinovic, Mackenzie McDonald, Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas. He lost only 2 short sets in this tournament, and spent just over 12 hours on the courts.

Analysis

This final could keep the promises the poster makes to us.

We are dealing with two very complete players, solid in service and regular in the rallies. I’m drooling over it.

Novak Djokovic may have to force it if he wants to win his 18th Grand Slam. We can logically wonder where he stands in relation to his current physical condition. Indeed, the world’s number one player says he is injured. Is he a master in the handling of the pipe? At the moment, it’s hard to know. Nevertheless, one thing is sure: Daniil Medvedev had some cramps in this tournament but he is physically well.

There is another parameter to take into account in this final: the mind. Novak Djokovic is still 3 Grand Slam tournaments behind Federer and Nadal (both at 20), and we know he wants to surpass them. As Daniil Medvedev said very well, it’s the world number 1 who has all the pressure. On his side, the Russian seems to be at the top mentally. Indeed, he manages to play with the same efficiency, whether the public is with him or not. The machine.

I’m going to give my slight preference to Daniil Medvevev who I found overall more convincing since the beginning of this competition, and who has the necessary game to go and annoy Novak Djokovic.

Daniil Medvedev’s playing style is as physically demanding as Novak Djokovic’s. And at times, I would even say it is a little bit more so. The Russian is formidable when it comes to managing rallies from his baseline. Contrary to Novak Djokovic, he will very often try to attack his opponent (he hits flat, strong, and finds excellent zones). The Serb is very difficult to overrun, but his state of mind is less often offensive than that of Daniil Medvedev (who has moreover managed 46 winning shots against Tsitsipas).

It is also necessary to put forward the incredible solidity of the backhand of Daniil Medvedev who will be able to compete perfectly with that of Novak Djokovic.

Finally, and it’s also quite monstrous, Daniil Medvedev manages to get into the court to take the ball early. This could be a speed up more than once Novak Djokovic.

If we have to deal with this Daniil Medvedev who manages to be present on all the balls, I don’t see Novak Djokovic resisting him in 5 sets. Beware, far from me the idea of describing the Serb as a second-class player. He is one of the best players in the world capable of playing incredible tennis, and this for a very long time. However, he has shown some signs of feverishness since the beginning of this tournament which could well reappear in this match. Especially if Daniil Medvedev plays at his best level. The Russian seems to me to have reached maturity. Winning the Grand Slam final against the world No. 1 is the best way to confirm this.

Let’s finish with a little statistic: Novak Djokovic has already played 27 Grand Slam finals and lost 10 of them. And, as I said before, he has never yet been defeated in the final of the Australian Open (8 wins).

I am expecting a very balanced match, and I hope to see one of the best matches of this beginning of the year. Oh yes!

Prediction: Daniil Medvedev wins

High risk

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