Australian Open (1/8 final): Andrey Rublev – Casper Ruud

Latest confrontations

These two players have already met twice in official matches, always on clay. Andrey Rublev won both matches, losing a set in the process.

Tournament history

Andrey Rublev is competing in the Australian Open for the fifth time in his career. This is the second time in a row that he has reached the 1/8 final, and he has never been able to go further.

As for Casper Ruud, he is playing this Grand Slam tournament for the third time. Prior to 2021, he had never made it past the second round.

In this edition

Andrey Rublev had three solid opening matches against Yannick Hanfmann, Thiago Monteiro and Feliciano Lopez.

For his part, Casper Ruud won against Jordan Thompson (on the latter’s withdrawal), Tommy Paul and Radu Albot. Note that the Norwegian was stung a set by his last two opponents.

Analysis

Andrey Rublev is one of the players who have impressed me the most since the beginning of the season. Indeed, his violent forehand allows him to make the difference against any opponent. He has also become more regular in rallies, which allows him to impose a great intensity on his opponents.

Casper Ruud has been on the rise for a few months now. He is a serious player who plays a naturally offensive tennis. He doesn’t wait for his opponents’ fault to attack, and that’s often nice to see. However, even though he has improved a lot on hard courts, he is not on his preferred surface. As usual, Andrey Rublev should exploit his power to make the ball come back to the opponent’s camp very quickly. The Russian is also able to find excellent areas. All this makes me think that Casper Ruud’s aggressiveness could be neutralized more than once. When he suffers and has to send the ball back in the end, the current 28th in the world is much less transcendent.

Let’s also highlight the good service of these two players. They know how to stay solid on their commitments, and this could lead to at least one tie-break. Nevertheless, I think Andrey Rublev will take the physical advantage over Casper Ruud. Ruud could end up not being clear about his service games.

A victory for Andrey Rublev seems more than likely here. He could then meet his compatriot Daniil Medvedev in the next round for a quarter-final. Unless the underdogs don’t let themselves be beaten. In that case, the poster could be: Casper Ruud – Mackenzie McDonald. It is indeed much less sexy.

Andrey Rublev, in 3 sets ?

Prediction: Andrey Rublev wins

Low risk

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