Australian Open (1/4 final): Andrey Rublev – Daniil Medvedev

Latest confrontations

These two Russian friends have already met 4 times between 2016 and 2020. Andrey Rublev has never yet managed to beat Daniil Medvedev.

We nevertheless remember their last confrontation, at the US Open last year, where Adrey Rublev lost 3-0 but managed to get his compatriot into 2 tie-breaks.

Tournament history

This is Andrey Rublev’s fifth appearance at the Australian Open, and the first time he has reached the quarter-finals. Previously, he had never managed to get past the 1/8 final (2020).

On his side, Daniil Medvedev also discovered the quarter-finals of this Grand Slam tournament. On his last 4 participations, he had never yet managed to get out of the 1/8 finals (2019 and 2020).

Access to the semi-finals of the Australian Open will therefore be a first for one of these two players.

In this edition

To get there, Andrey Rublev defeated Yannick Hanfmann, Thiago Monteiro, Feliciano Lopez and Casper Ruud (the latter retired after 2-0). The Russian has not yet lost a set in this tournament.

Daniil Medvedev defeated Vasek Pospisil, Roberto Carballes Baena, Filip Krajinovic and Mackenzie McDonald. Only Krajinovic managed to steal 2 sets from him (while Medvedev led 2-0).

Analysis

This is a nice poster, isn’t it?

The previous confrontations should not have too much impact on Andrey Rublev who has never yet managed to steal a set from Daniil Medvedev. The current 8th seems to me strong enough mentally to put these defeats to one side. Nevertheless, we can still imagine that this statistic should allow Daniil Medvedev to present himself a little more serene on the court.

For this new match, I expect a battle of the same caliber as at the US Open last September. Despite Daniil Medvedev’s 3-0 victory, the two players were quite close (especially on serve where it was difficult to separate them). Nevertheless, we remember that the world number 4 had tried to take control of the rally more than once. He had indeed succeeded in 50 winning shots (against 22 for Rublev). However, it is worth mentioning that Daniil Medvedev also made 20 more unforced errors than his compatriot.

For this new match, I sincerely think that these two players (who know each other by heart) can leave with the victory. And, one thing is sure, neither of these two men will give up so easily.

Andrey Rublev serves monstrous first balls and knows how to release a very powerful forehand. The world’s 4th can’t do anything if his compatriot has good statistics in first, but he really has what it takes to annoy him on his seconds. Rublev is far from being as good on second serve, and Daniil Medvedev could take advantage of this to annoy him on the restart. Andrey Rublev will also be able to give up some nice returns when his opponent is a little less good on serve.

In the rallies, Daniil Medvedev knows that it is necessary to avoid his opponent’s forehand. And the advantage he will have over Rublev is that his backhand is much more effective. Regular and capable of accelerating the game, Daniil Medvedev’s backhand should therefore succeed more than once in neutralizing Andrey Rublev.

Daniil Medvedev also showed in his last match against Mackenzie McDonald that he can remain very regular in the rallies but above all take the game to his own account. For this new match, he should be able to do the same, by quickly changing the direction of the ball. Andrey Rublev is indeed much less dangerous when he is always on the move (he prefers to use his powerful forehand when staring at his opponents).

So I’m going to look on the side of regularity rather than aggressiveness. Nevertheless, let’s highlight Andrey Rublev’s very good level since the beginning of the year. This could well be the most difficult match that Daniil Medvedev will have to play against his compatriot.

Prediction: Daniil Medvedev wins

High risk

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